Forecasting

Overview

Forecasting in PAR OPS predicts future business needs, such as sales, entrée counts, checks, or guests, based on baseline criteria. You can adjust these forecasts for specific dates or time frames to plan for events or sudden changes in customer volume. Event Forecast uses historical data from past events to predict outcomes for a future one. It applies a Source store's event lift to a Target store's forecast, so you can plan inventory, staffing, and marketing ahead of the event.

How do I Read the Forecasting Bar Chart?

The bar chart section displays Projected Sales, Entrée Count, Guest Count, and Check Count numbers alongside the chart, with the selected metric at the top. The chart itself visualizes forecasted sales by day. For past weeks, actual sales (in light blue) are also included for comparison. Hover over any bar to view side-by-side data for the forecast, the actual sales, and the difference between them.

How do I Read the Sales Heat Map?

The heatmap view in the top right corner of the Forecasting activity visualizes your busiest and slowest periods using colored time blocks. Choose a Data Type and Week Start from the drop-downs at the top to get started. Light blue squares indicate lower activity, while dark blue squares show higher activity. You can mouse over any block to see the dollar value for that hour's sales, or use the expand button in the upper right corner for a more detailed breakdown.

How do I Create a Forecast?

The forecast generates based on the week start date, which can be adjusted at any time in the header to reload the forecast for a new date.

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Select the Week Start date drop-down
3. Choose a new Week Start date from the calendar
4. The forecast will reload based on the selected date
5. Review the updated forecast

How do I Modify a Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Select a Week Start date to generate the forecast
3. In the forecast table, expand the date you'd like to modify by selecting the chevron >
4. Make any changes. The forecast table has two editable columns:
   • Revised Forecast: Manually adjust the forecasted amount
   • % Change: Enter a percentage amount to be applied as the new forecasted amount
5. When you're ready, select the Regenerate button in the top right corner
   • This will overwrite the current forecasted amount with the changes, using the setup defined by your administrator
6. Review the updated forecast

How do I Delete a Forecast?

A forecast can not be deleted — it can only be modified or regenerated.

How do I Revise a Forecast?

The Revise button can be used to make multiple detailed changes to a forecast at once.

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Select the Revise button in the upper right corner
3. Make any necessary edits. Options include:
   • Set a specific Start Date and End Date
   • Set a Start Time and End Time
   • Choose specific Accounts to include in your forecast
   • Choose an Adjust By metric (Projected Sales, Entrée Count, Guest Count, or Check Count)
   • Choose an Adjustment Method (Dollar or Percent) and set its value
4. When you're ready, select Save

How do I Lock or Unlock a Forecast?

Locking a forecast protects the data against future revisions. Unlocking allows it to be edited again.

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Select the Lock button in the upper right corner
3. If the forecast is locked, select the Unlock button instead if you want to unlock it

EVENT FORECASTING

The Event Forecasting activity helps you plan for spikes or dips in customer demand caused by special events, like a local festival, sporting event, or school fundraiser. It uses historical sales data from past events to predict how similar events will affect your upcoming business.

How do I add an Event to Forecast for my Store?

1. Open Event Forecast

2. Select Add Event

   • Select Event Name  from the list of available events OR Select Add New Event Name to create a new event and enter the Event name
   • Select the Date Range of when the event occurred or will be occurring.
   The date range available to be selected can be as far back as 18 months and as far in the future as 6 months.

3. Select Save

4. Select the Targets tab

5. Select Add Store

6. Select Start Date the created event should be applied

7. Select End Date the created event should be applied

8. Select the Chart tab to review the expected Lift to original forecasted sales

How do I Modify an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Enter the modifications
   • Summary:  Adjust the dates to use as the event basis
   • Targets
     • Adjust the dates to apply the event
     • Add new dates to apply the event
     • Delete rows (dates) the event will apply

How do I Delete an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event
3. Select Delete

How do I Delete a Target applied to an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Select Targets
4. Select the Trash icon on the row of dates to deleted

EVENT FORECAST ADMINISTRATION

The Event Forecast Administration activity allows events to be created that are available for all or selected stores to choose from.

How do I add an Event to be Used by Multiple Stores for Forecasting?

1. Open Event Forecast Administration

2. Select Add Event

   • Type:
     < Select Stores to select one or multiple stores from the list
     < Select Groups to select one or multiple Smart Groups from the list
   • Source Group(s)
     < Select one or multiple stores from the list if the Type selected is Stores
     < Select one or multiple groups from the list if the Type selected is Groups
   • Select Event Name  from the list of available events OR Select Add New Event Name to create a new event and enter the Event name
   • Select the Date Range of when the event occurred or will be occurring.
   The date range available to be selected can be as far back as 18 months and as far in the future as 6 months.

3. Select Save

4. Select the Targets tab

5. Select

   1. Add Store
   2. Add Group

6. Select Start Date the created event should be applied

7. Select End Date the created event should be applied

8. Select the Chart tab to review the expected Lift to original forecasted sales

How do I Modify an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Enter the modifications
   • Summary:  Adjust the dates to use as the event basis
   • Targets:
     • Adjust the dates to apply the event
     • Add new dates to apply the event
     • Delete rows (dates) the event will apply

How do I Delete an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event
3. Select Delete

How do I Delete a Target Applied to an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Select Targets
4. Select the Trash icon on the row of dates to deleted

FAQ

Who cares about forecasting?

Managers, administrators, and business analysts care about forecasting to optimize operations and prepare for future demand.

What is the goal of forecasting?

The goal of forecasting is to predict future needs based on baseline criteria, allowing for efficient resource allocation and improved customer satisfaction.

Where can this information be viewed?

This information can be viewed in the PAR OPS system, specifically within the Forecasting activity and related settings.

What other reports or activities are impacted by an entry in forecasting?

Entries in forecasting impact inventory management, staffing, marketing strategies, and event preparation, ensuring businesses are well-prepared for upcoming demand and events.

How does the lock functionality work with ML Forecasting?

During the daily refresh, locked days will not be updated.  This includes both original and revised values.  Unlocked days will have original and non-modified revised values updated automatically.  If there are any days with revisions, these revisions will not be overwritten, only the original values will be updated in this case.