Forecasting

Forecasting in PAR OPS is a powerful tool that optimizes business operations by predicting future needs based on baseline criteria. It displays forecast amounts for elements like sales, entrée counts, checks, or guests, which can be adjusted for specific dates or time frames. This flexibility helps manage scenarios like sudden customer influxes or events, ensuring efficient resource allocation and improved customer satisfaction. The Event Forecast feature leverages historical data from past events to predict future outcomes, applying the Source store's event lift to the Target store's forecast. This enables businesses to optimize inventory, staffing, and marketing strategies, ensuring they are well-prepared for upcoming events and enhancing overall efficiency and profitability.

How do I View the Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting.
2. Select Filters.
3. Select the Week Start date.
4. Review the forecast.

How do I Create the Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting.
2. Select Filters.
3. Select the Week Start date.
4. Select Regenerate.
5. Review the forecast.

How do I Modify the Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting.
2. Select Filters.
3. Select the Week Start date.
4. Select the > chevron of the section to be modified.
5. Navigate to the Revised column to adjust the forecasted amount or the % Change column to enter a percentage amount to be applied as the new forecasted amount.
6. Select Regenerate to overwrite the current forecasted amount using the setup defined by your administrator.
7. Review the forecast.

How do I Delete the Forecast?

A forecast can only be modified or regenerated.

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Select Filters
3. Select the Week Start date
4. Select the > chevron of the section to be modified
5. Navigate to the Revised column to adjust the forecasted amount or the % Change column to enter a percentage amount to be applied as the new forecasted amount.
6. Select Regenerate to overwrite the current forecasted amount using the setup defined by your administrator
7. Review the forecast
8. Go to Forecasting
9. Select Filters
10. Select the Week Start date
11. Select Regenerate
12. The forecast will populate
13. Adjust Forecast
    1. Your current Forecast will load
       1. Entree Count (not shown)
       2. Guest Count (not shown)
       3. Check Count (not shown)
    2. Select Filters
    3. Select Forecast field
    4. Select a Forecast
    5. Select Week Start field
    6. Select a date
    7. Select X to close Filters
    8. Select Revise
    9. Select Period field
    10. Select an individual day(s)
    11. Select Start Time field
    12. Enter a Start Time
    13. Select End Time field
    14. Enter an End Time
    15. Select Accounts field
    16. Select an Account(s)
    17. Select Adjust By field
    18. Select to Adjust By
    19. Observe Current Forecast field
    20. Select Method field
    21. Select Method
    22. Enter Adjustment Amount
    23. Select X to close filters
    24. Select Save
14. Review Revised Forecast
    1. The updated forecast displays changes to Sales and Counts with original data displayed in light blue
    2. Entree Count, Guest Count, Check Count (not shown)
15. Lock Forecast
    1. Select Lock to lock your forecast against future revisions
16. Regenerate Forecast
    1. Select Regenerate
    2. This will overwrite all existing data and return your forecast to its original values
    3. Select Overwrite and the original values overwrite all revision entries
    4. Forecast is returned to Original state

How do I use Advanced Forecasting?

1. Go to Forecasting
2. Adjust Forecast by Amount
   1. The current forecast will load
   2. Select Entree Count chevron
   3. Select a daily Revised field
   4. Use the calculator or keypad to enter a revision to the Entree Count
   5. Select Forecast breadcrumb
   6. Review changes to forecast
3. Adjust Forecast by Percent
   1. Select Entree Count chevron
   2. Select a daily % Change field
   3. Use the calculator or keypad to enter a revision to the Entree Count
   4. Select Forecast breadcrumb
   5. Review changes to forecast
4. Adjust Interval by Amount
   1. Select Entree Count chevron
   2. Select Total’s chevron
   3. Select a Day and Time from the matrix
   4. Use the calculator or keypad to enter new value to the matrix
   5. Mouse over the updated matrix amount to view the Original amount
   6. Select Forecast breadcrumb
   7. Review changes to forecast
5. Lock Forecast
   1. Select Lock to lock your forecast against further revisions
6. Regenerate Forecast
   1. Select Entree Count chevron

How do I Lock a Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting.
2. Select the Lock button in the header ribbon to lock your forecast against future revisions.

How do I Unlock a Forecast?

1. Go to Forecasting.
2. Select the Lock button in the header ribbon to unlock your forecast and enable future revisions.

EVENT FORECAST

How do I add an Event to Forecast for my Store?

1. Open Event Forecast

2. Select Add Event

   • Select Event Name  from the list of available events OR Select Add New Event Name to create a new event and enter the Event name
   • Select the Date Range of when the event occurred or will be occurring.
   The date range available to be selected can be as far back as 18 months and as far in the future as 6 months.

3. Select Save

4. Select the Targets tab

5. Select Add Store

6. Select Start Date the created event should be applied

7. Select End Date the created event should be applied

8. Select the Chart tab to review the expected Lift to original forecasted sales

How do I Modify an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Enter the modifications
   • Summary:  Adjust the dates to use as the event basis
   • Targets
     • Adjust the dates to apply the event
     • Add new dates to apply the event
     • Delete rows (dates) the event will apply

How do I Delete an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event
3. Select Delete

How do I Delete a Target applied to an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Select Targets
4. Select the Trash icon on the row of dates to deleted

EVENT FORECAST ADMINISTRATION

The Event Forecast Administration activity allows events to be created that are available for all or selected stores to choose from.

How do I add an Event to be Used by Multiple Stores for Forecasting?

1. Open Event Forecast Administration

2. Select Add Event

   • Type:
     < Select Stores to select one or multiple stores from the list
     < Select Groups to select one or multiple Smart Groups from the list
   • Source Group(s)
     < Select one or multiple stores from the list if the Type selected is Stores
     < Select one or multiple groups from the list if the Type selected is Groups
   • Select Event Name  from the list of available events OR Select Add New Event Name to create a new event and enter the Event name
   • Select the Date Range of when the event occurred or will be occurring.
   The date range available to be selected can be as far back as 18 months and as far in the future as 6 months.

3. Select Save

4. Select the Targets tab

5. Select

   1. Add Store
   2. Add Group

6. Select Start Date the created event should be applied

7. Select End Date the created event should be applied

8. Select the Chart tab to review the expected Lift to original forecasted sales

How do I Modify an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Enter the modifications
   • Summary:  Adjust the dates to use as the event basis
   • Targets:
     • Adjust the dates to apply the event
     • Add new dates to apply the event
     • Delete rows (dates) the event will apply

How do I Delete an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event
3. Select Delete

How do I Delete a Target Applied to an Event to Forecast?

1. Open Event Forecast
2. Select the Event to modify
3. Select Targets
4. Select the Trash icon on the row of dates to deleted

FAQ

Who cares about forecasting?

Managers, administrators, and business analysts care about forecasting to optimize operations and prepare for future demand.

What is the goal of forecasting?

The goal of forecasting is to predict future needs based on baseline criteria, allowing for efficient resource allocation and improved customer satisfaction.

Where can this information be viewed?

This information can be viewed in the PAR OPS system, specifically within the Forecasting activity and related settings.

What other reports or activities are impacted by an entry in forecasting?

Entries in forecasting impact inventory management, staffing, marketing strategies, and event preparation, ensuring businesses are well-prepared for upcoming demand and events.

How does the lock functionality work with ML Forecasting?

During the daily refresh, locked days will not be updated.  This includes both original and revised values.  Unlocked days will have original and non-modified revised values updated automatically.  If there are any days with revisions, these revisions will not be overwritten, only the original values will be updated in this case.