Forecast Setup

Forecast Setup is used to configure settings for how a forecast is calculated and which accounts it gets posted to.

What can be Viewed and Edited in Forecast Setup?

Use this activity to create a forecast format, which defines how forecasted numbers are calculated, displayed and reported. A forecast format must exist prior to using a forecast.

Explanation of Columns:

• Description: Enter the template description. This will appear on reports and in the forecast.
• Sales Type: Select a sales type to use in forecast calculations. Choose between Gross Sales or Net Sales.
• Increment: Select a time interval of 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, or Day Prep.
  • If this format is to be used for scheduling, this value must be the same as the values in the Interval Type column in the Schedule Templates form.
• Default: Check the box to mark a forecast format as the default for all stores.
• Exclude Outliers: Select outliers to remove high and/or low values from the calculation. Choose between None, High, Low, or High and Low.
• Hide: Check the box to make the forecast format unavailable for use with reports and Forecast Wizard.
  • Easy Mode does not have an option to show hidden rows. Carefully consider this before selecting the Hide option.
• Sales Posting Account: Select the account where the forecasted Sales value will be posted.
• Check Posting Account: Select the account where the forecasted Check value will be posted.
• Guest Posting Account: Select the account where the forecasted Guest value will be posted.
• Table Posting Account: Select the account where the forecasted Table value will be posted.
• Entrée Posting Account: Select the account where the forecasted Entrée value will be posted.

Explanation of Details Columns - Weeks Tab:

• Week: Shows the forecast week to be weighted in the next column.
• Weight: Enter a value to weight the forecast for each week designation needed.
  • The sum of all weights must = 1.00.
  • To remove a value designated, put a 0 in the box, DO NOT press delete.
• Trend: Used to evaluate sales performance trends compared to the prior year. This value is only available for use with the ‘Same Week Last Year’ line. Select ‘None’, or a value of 1-5. If there’s a value other than 0 in the Weight column for this line, trending values will be calculated using up to the previous 5 corresponding weeks from last year. For example, if 4 is the selected Trend value, and over the last 4 weeks we are running +6% vs. the same 4 weeks last year, our forecast for this week would be 100% of prior year +6%.
  • 0 = No trend is calculated.
  • 1 = Calculates the ratio of “Previous Week Sales” to “Same Week Last Year – 1 Sales” and multiplies the value for “Same Week Last Year Sales” by this ratio.
  • 2 = Uses the above calculation where ‘Same Week Last Year – 1’ now = -2.
  • 3 = Uses the above calculation where ‘Same Week Last Year – 1’ now = -3.
  • 4 = Uses the above calculation where ‘Same Week Last Year – 1’ now = -4.
  • 5 = Uses the above calculation where ‘Same Week Last Year – 1’ now = -5.

Explanation of Details Columns - Accounts Tab:

• Account: If you’re selling PLUs in the POS that are linked to a POS category that needs to be linked to a new Account in DC, then that new Account will need to be added to both the Forecast Setup activity and the Schedule Templates activity (for each template.)
• Skip: Check the box to exclude this account from any forecasting calculations.
• Forecast Type: Shows where the account is linked.
• Is Used in Schedule Format: Check the box to indicate an account that should be Used in Schedule Format.
• Posting Account: Select an account where the forecast data will be posted.
• Included in AI Model: Check the box to indicate an account that should be used in training the AIModel for ML Forecasting.
  • You must enable this option for each account by selecting the checkbox in the Included in AI Model column in the Accounts activity in Smart Client.

How Do I Create A Forecast Format?

1. Go to Forecast Setup in the Smart Client.
2. Select the + Add button in the ribbon.
3. Enter a Description.
4. Choose between Gross Sales or Net Sales.
5. Select the appropriate Increment.
   • If this format is to be used for scheduling, this value must be the same as the values in the Interval Type column in the Schedule Templates form.
6. Select the appropriate Posting Accounts under the Posting to DBS band.
7. Select the Details Ellipsis (…) to expand the details of the forecast.
8. Enter the appropriate Weight(s) in the Week tab.
9. Select the Accounts tab.
10. Optional:
    • Check the box in the Skip column for accounts that should not be used for calculations.
    • Check the box in the Is Used in Schedule Format column to for accounts that should be used in Schedule Format.
    • Select a Posting Account, if applicable.
    • Check the box in the Included in AI Model column for accounts that should be included in training Machine Learning Forecasting.
11. Select Save.

How Do I Delete A Forecast Format?

1. Go to Forecast Setup in the Smart Client.
2. Select the Forecast Format to be deleted.
3. Select Delete.
4. Select Save.

FAQ

How does PAR approach building and maintaining ML forecasting models?

PAR uses advanced machine learning to forecast sales demand up to 21 days in advance, leveraging one year of historical data and continuously learning from new data as it becomes available.

Can Additional Accounts be Added to ML Forecasting After Training?

Yes, while the model is trained on the initial accounts selected, the model will pick up new accounts if they are added. The model will use the available data to inform the forecast.

How Often does Forecast Data Refresh?

The forecast data is refreshed daily. We forecast 21 days in advance. The forecast improves accuracy as the business date gets closer to the current date.